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How the BAFTAs Help Predict the Oscars

Oscars_2013__Who_will_win_what__The_predictions___
The Oscars are on Sunday (!!!) and the BAFTAs commonly help predict what will happen. For the past ten years, the BAFTA Best Film winner has won the Oscar five times (the Golden Globe Drama has won the Oscar twice, and the Comedy has won twice as well), giving the BAFTA a better chance at being a predictor.

This year, Argo has picked up the Best Film award in both the Golden Globes and BAFTAs and has a RT rating of 96% giving it a good chance of winning, unless the Oscars do something a little weird. The bigger problem is Best Director. The Golden Globes awarded Ben Affleck (Argo) for Best Director as did the BAFTAs, but here’s the catch… The Oscars don’t have Affleck as a nominee. Nor did they include Bigelow or Tarantino, leaving only two of the nominees in the BAFTAs (Haneke and Lee) as nominees for the Academy Award. With Spielberg also nominated for the Best Director Oscar, he has a good bet against Ang Lee.

In the acting categories, although there are a few changes the frontrunners have stayed the same. SAGs, Globes, and BAFTAs are on a consensus for Lincoln’s Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor, with Hugh Jackman getting the Comedy/Musical Best Actor award at the Globes. Hugh Jackman has his first nomination for Les Miserables, and Daniel Day-Lewis has won two previous Oscars, but I think Day-Lewis still is a better bet for the award. Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, and Emmanuelle Riva have all won for Best Actress. Christoph Waltz and Tommy Lee Jones are the big players in Best Supporting Actor, and Anne Hathaway seems to have it locked down for Best Supporting Actress after winning all three previous award shows.

The other categories have enough changes in nominees that it becomes more difficult to tell who will win, but I’d bet on Adele winning for her original song Skyfall, and perhaps Brave winning for Animated Film as well.

Read below for a full list of awards and nominees.

Best Film:
Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director:
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Amy Adams (The Master)
Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Best Official Screenplay:
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Amour (Michael Haneke)
The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

Best Cinematography:
Life of Pi
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Skyfall

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer:
Bart Layton and Dmitri Doganis (The Imposter, director/producer)
James Bobin (The Muppets, director)
Dexter Fletcher and Danny King (Wild Bill, director writer/writer)
Tina Gharavi (I Am Nasrine, director writer)
David Morris and Jaqui Morris (McCullin, director/director producer)

Outstanding British Film:
Skyfall
Anna Karenina
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Seven Psychopaths

Best Documentary:
Searching for Sugar Man
The Imposter
Marley
McCullin
West of Memphis

Best Original Music:
Skyfall
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Best Sound:
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Skyfall

Best Production Design:
Les Miserables
Anna Karenina
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Best Special Visual Effects:
Life of Pi
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus

Best Costume Design:
Anna Karenina
Great Expectations
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Makeup and Hair:
Les Miserables

Anna Karenina
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lincoln

Best Editing:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Film not in the English Language:
Amour
Headhunters
The Hunt
Rust and Bone
The Intouchables

Best Animated Film:
Brave
Frankenweenie
Paranorman

Best Short Animation:
The Making of Longbird
Here to Fall
I’m Fine Thanks

Best Short Film:
Swimmer
The Curse
Good Night
Tumult
The Voorman Problem

EE Rising Star Award:
Juno Temple
Elizabeth Olsen
Andrea Riseborough
Suraj Sharma
Alicia Vikander

What do you think will win the awards?

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